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Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-06T12:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13013/-1
CME Note: Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T22:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -142
Dst min. time: 2017-09-08T02:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T10:25Z
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-09-06 14:57
-Time at C2: 2017-09-06 12:24
-Radial speed: 1238.0 km/s
-Half angle: 44 deg
-Eruption location: S15W23
Inferences:
-Associated flare: X9.3 (S08W33). Peak at 2017-09-06 11:53
Predictions for Earth:
-In-situ shock speed: 836.42 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2017-09-08 10:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 46.03 hours)

Lead Time: 20.28 hour(s)
Difference: -11.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2017-09-07T02:13Z

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